Il terzo è lo spettro di un default. Il Venezuela vende ogni giorno 640mila barili al giorno alla Cina, a prezzo privilegiato per poter ripagare almeno gli interessi dei 40miliardi di dollari che Pechino ha investito in Venezuela dal 2008 a oggi.Per questo, secondo Russell Dallen, analista americano di “Caracas Capital Markets”, nei prossimi cinque anni vi è il 65% di probabilità che Venezuela non sappia fronteggiare i propri debiti.
Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, the trustee for the $75 million of outstanding bonds issued by the Caracas-based
steel producer known as Sidetur, said in a Jan. 30 letter to creditors that a technical default occurred because a reserve
account maintained by the company wasn’t fully funded, according to Russell Dallen, the head trader at Caracas Capital Markets,
and Ray Zucaro at SW Asset Management LLC.
“Estados Unidos sigue siendo el único cliente real que paga en efectivo y el precio completo”, dijo Russ Dallen, jefe operador de Caracas Capital Markets, en Caracas. “Puede que Romney quiera utilizar esa influencia para dejar de subvencionar una espina que tiene clavada Estados Unidos”.
Dallen añade que Venezuela, o por lo menos el gobierno de Chávez, necesita que los precios del petróleo se mantengan altos, y Obama podría ser una apuesta más segura para ese escenario. “Obama está más dispuesto a tolerar los altos precios de la gasolina porque la gasolina, a 4 dólares el galón, provoca que las personas estén más dispuestas a invertir en tecnologías alternativas y que esas tecnologías sean más rentables”.
Russell Dallen, a managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, in the Venezuelan capital, says he has received dozens of inquiries from foreign investors about how to invest in the country’s stock market, and has advised some hedge funds that have jumped in. “International investors are seeing that they could have doubled their money,” Mr. Dallen says. Venezuela is home to some “great companies, even if they happen to be in a bad neighborhood.”
Russell Dallen, the Miami-based head bond trader at Caracas Capital Markets, wrote in an e-mail that Bocaranda “helped Venezuelan bonds gain 30 percent since he first revealed Chávez’s illness nine months ago.”
There is a lot of interest from foreign investors in the bonds issued by Venezuela's government and its state oil firm, which offer high returns but are consistently rated by risk indicators as having the world's greatest chance of default.
This month, PDVSA launched another $3 billion bond in its latest bid to juggle its many obligations to service providers, nationalized companies and social spending. [ID:nN25262594]
Speculation about any sale of Citgo has also jacked up interest in the $300 million of notes that were issued by the U.S. refiner and mature in 2017, secured by its refineries, its inventories and a portion of its accounts receivable.
"If Citgo is sold, these bonds with an 11.5 percent coupon will fly," said Russ Dallen, head trader at Caracas-based BBO Financial Services. http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-refineries-citgo-idUSN2822676820101028
“We have been watching in awe at everything that has gone on over the past week, from the collapse and runs on the banks to the revolution eating its own,” said Russell M. Dallen Jr., who oversees Caracas Capital Markets, a Caracas investment bank.
Russell Dallen, head trader at Caracas Capital Markets in Venezuela, said the new PDVSA issue should be as attractive for investors, as the other two.
“The indications are that they are willing to put it out there cheaply,” he said.
Last week’s issue was “a gift” for buyers, Dallen said.
“Simply put, there is no other place to go in the international credit markets to find a similar credit profile and get those kind of 13 percent yields,” he said.
“They had this beautiful new building, and clients of mine would come in and tell us they were transferring their assets to Stanford because they were promised returns of 14 percent,” said Russell M. Dallen Jr., who ran Oppenheimer’s operations in Caracas before going to BBO, a Venezuelan investment bank, where he oversees capital markets activities.
“Chávez doesn’t want to do anything that would jeopardize his chances of winning the vote, ” said Russell Dallen Jr., head of Caracas Capital Markets, an investment bank here.