“Las altas esferas militares están implicadas hacen plata con diversos programas”, afirma Russ Dallen, director gerente de Caracas Capital, un banco de inversión. Las acusaciones también salpican a la familia gobernante: dos sobrinos de la primera dama Cilia Flores esperan la sentencia de un tribunal de Nueva York por cargos de contrabando de cocaína hacia los Estados Unidos.
道琼斯7月13日消息，投资银行Caracas Capital的Russ Dallen表示，委内瑞拉不断下滑的石油产量每年为该国带来近70亿美元的损失，而产量下滑的主要原因并非是认真执行欧佩克的限产协议，而是在运营方面遇到阻力。
“It’s really bad,” says Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital, a firm based in Miami. “They can’t invest any money, they can’t pay their providers…It keeps circling the drain.”
Venezuela’s direct communication with OPEC indicated a production decline of 33,000 barrels per day. Russ Dallen, an attorney, publisher and head of Caracas Capital Markets writes:
” … Venezuela’s rig count had fallen to 49 in July 2016. Venezuela did try and get more rigs drilling over the last year, hitting a high of 56 in April, but guess what: the rig count for Venezuela is for June 2017: back at 49.
Based on its own estimates that its production was collapsing — estimates similar to ours –Venezuela agreed with OPEC to cut production to 1.972 barrels per day (in other words giving what was already a fait accompli). Venezuela has fallen through that cut and is now 34,000 barrels per day below its quota — while as OPEC notes, everyone else’s production is going higher. Worse, if you look at the 2015 column on the chart above, Venezuela was producing 2.375 million barrels per day just a year and a half ago in 2015. That means Venezuela is producing 437,000 barrels per day less than it was 2 years ago, which at Venezuela’s average 2017 oil price of $43.60 (so far), means that Venezuela is losing over half a billion dollars every month; $6.9 billion a year…”
Russ Dallen, a lawyer, publisher and investor in Venezuela bonds via Caracas Capital, writes that there are two big things on the Venezuela agenda, including the possibility of more information on the finances and debt at state-controlled oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa):
“… Two big things on the Venezuela agenda for today. The first is for leaks coming out of PDVSA investor calls organized by BancTrust which are supposed to be held today — and the release of PDVSA 2016 financials cannot be far behind. The second big news of the day will be whether Venezuela pays Gold Reserve the $29.5 million installment on the $1.036 billion settlement. Previous agreements to pay Gold Reserve its $800 million International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) judgment have gone unpaid, until this latest agreement saw Venezuela cough up $40 million on June 16. … Crystallex — which has a $1.4 billion ICSID judgment — is getting a great deal more aggressive in its attempts to collect. They have filed a preliminary injunction on $710 million Venezuela credit linked notes at Nomura …”
“Venezuela is entering a new circle of hell,” Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, said in an emailed report on June 30. “As the hopelessness of this future becomes more obvious to the opposition and a majority of Venezuelans, violence, civil strife, assassinations, and probabilities of coup attempts will exponentially increase.”
The constituent assembly had a high probability of taking place and would most likely move to dissolve the opposition-controlled National Assembly once convened, Dallen said.
In his missive today, Venezuela critic Russ Dallen, a publisher, lawyer and Venezuela bond investor through Caracas Capital, offers some background on the political stagnation under Maduro. In short, the escalating violence and civil strife in the country means an impending “inflection point,” Dallen says:
” …the Maduro regime has been unable to raise significant foreign capital – aside from the loan from Rosneft (ROSN.Russia) against 49.9% of Petroleos de Venezuela’s U.S. refining operation Citgo (a story which we first help break on December 21) and the “morally repugnant” cash injection from Goldman Sachs last month. The Maduro regime’s refusal to co-exist and/or negotiate with an Opposition-dominated legislature (a task of functioning democracies all over the world) has led Maduro to unleash his own weapon of mass destruction – the hydrogen bomb of calling a National Constituent Assembly (ANC) …
The government is using this wafer-thin veneer of constitutional legality for two reasons … One is to bring along the military rank-and-file. While the upper echelons of the military are “all in” as they are making money with various schemes … The second reason for the legal lipservice is an attempt to give legal surety to potential investors (namely Russia, China & others interested in investing in oil, gold and mineral mining ventures) that were put off by the lack of National Assembly approval or a legally solid workaround. … the Supreme Court takes over the right to approve any new oil, gold or mineral investments since the National Assembly is in “contempt.” But Russia and other investors felt that ground was too shaky to invest billions of dollars, hence the regime’s National Constituent Assembly is designed to replace the obstinate National Assembly and pave that legal path for investment more solidly …”
Russell Dallen joins Michelle Makori to discuss the Venezuela crisis
Posted by i24NEWS English on Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Russell Dallen joins Michelle Makori to discuss the Venezuela crisis.
In order to apply additional analytic rigor to the development of plausible scenarios for Venezuela, CSIS convened a small group of experts with diverse backgrounds in the U.S. government and private sector, including Mark Schneider, senior adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Richard Miles, deputy director, CSIS Americas Program and director, CSIS U.S.-Mexico Futures Initiative; John Schaus, fellow, CSIS International Security Program; and Russ Dallen, managing partner, Caracas Capital Markets, to apply the Alternate Futures Structured Analytic Technique. Alternative Futures is a systematic method for identifying alternative trajectories by developing plausible and mind-stretching “stories” based on critical uncertainties. This scenarios method was inspired by Peter Schwartz, author of The Art of the Long View and Inevitable Surprises. The scenarios we developed in this exercise will help inform the “Day After” matrix that our Venezuela project is drafting to assist the United States and international community with recovery efforts in Venezuela.
A fin de aplicar más rigor analítico adicional al desarrollo de posibles escenarios en Venezuela, CSIS reunió a un grupo de expertos con diversa experiencia en el gobierno de los EE.UU. y en el sector privado incluyendo a Mark Schneider, consejero mayor del CSIS Americas Program; Richard Miles, director adjunto del CSIS Americas Program y CSIS U.S.-México Futures Initiative; John Schaus, miembro del CSIS International Security Program; y Russ Dallen, socio director de Caracas Capital Markets, para aplicar la Técnica Analítica Estructurada de Futuros Alternos. La técnica de Futuros Alternos es una metodología sistemática para identificar trayectorias alternativas desarrollando “relatos” verosímiles y que hacen pensar, basándose en incertidumbres críticas. Este método de escenarios fue inspirado por Peter Schwartz, autor deThe Art of the Long View y de Inevitable Surprises. Los escenarios que desarrollamos en este ejercicio ayudarán a alimentar la matriz de “El Día Después” que nuestro proyecto de Venezuela está redactando para ayudar a los Estados Unidos y a la comunidad internacional con los esfuerzos de recuperación en Venezuela.
GSAM has faced a storm of criticism for buying the PDVSA bonds, which opposition leaders say will not be honoured if the government falls. So far, says Russ Dallen of investment bank Caracas Capital, there have been no takers for the sovereign bonds.
“The PDVSA bond is toxic but not as toxic as the sovereign,” he says. “That one is incredibly radioactive. There have been no takers as far as I know, even at 20 cents.”
Mr Dallen at Caracas Capital — who is also publisher of the Latin American Herald Tribune, which first reported that Venezuela’s failure to pay its Russian debts had left a $1bn hole in Russia’s 2017 budget — points out that while Venezuela’s original default on its Russian debt happened some time ago, Russia’s public auditors say Venezuela has continued to miss payments this year, including one in March.
“Venezuela está pidiendo préstamos a tasas de préstamo de tiburones, como si estuvieran saliendo del negocio y no tienen intención de pagar estos bonos”, dijo Russ Dallen, socio gerente de la corredora Caracas Capital, que controla el mercado de bonos de Venezuela.
“Esaki ta prijs di likidacion,” Russ Dallen ta splica, cu ta socio di e firma di intermediacion financiero Caracas Capital Markets. “Esaki ta e tipo di operacion cu un persona ta realisa ora e sa cu finalmente e no ta bay paga su debenan, manera ora bo ta na punto di declara bancarota, pero un poco prome cu esey bo ta sali pa cumpra tur sorto di cos, cargando tur bo tarhetanan di credito te maximo.”
E bononan al portador, cu en esencia ta permiti un persona transporta $5,000 miyon anonimamente den un maletin, ta un instrumento actualmente mira masha poco biaha den mercadonan financiero, despues cu a descontinua nan na Merca y otros paisnan pasobra el a converti su mes den e instrumento perfecto pa labamento di placa y evasion fiscal.
E mmiho referencia conoci di e instrumentonan aki kizas tae bononan al portador Nakatomi, menciona den e pelicula “Hard to Kill’ cu Bruce Willis, unda e bandido, Hans Gruber, a spera di por scapa comodamente cu $640 miyon den un maleta.
“No por transporta $5,000 miyon den un maletin na biyete di $100,” Dallen a comenta. “Esaki ta e instrumento perfecto pa terorista di ficcion y, aparentemente tambe, pa e regimen Venezolano.”
E informacion disponible den mercado encuanto e emision priva di e bononan al portador pa e nacion ta scars, pero un di e datonan cu a duna di conoce a yama atencion di Dallen.
“Esaki ta e prome bono cu ta bisa cu Venezuela no mester ta un pais miembro di Fondo Monetario Internacional, y cu esey, riba su mes, no ta un evento di default,” e experto financiero acomenta, citando e informacion cu a aparece den e sistema di Bloomberg.
The DC request cites the Latin American Herald Tribune’s report on the default, which the FT has not been able to independently verify. Bloomberg has also confirmed the report, citing Russian Audit Chamber.
“Venezuela is borrowing at loan shark rates, as if they were going out of business and had no intention of paying these bonds back,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner at the brokerage Caracas Capital, which tracks Venezuela’s bond market.