Venezuela: la corrupción que Maduro oculta

“Las altas esferas militares están implicadas hacen plata con diversos programas”, afirma Russ Dallen, director gerente de Caracas Capital, un banco de inversión. Las acusaciones también salpican a la familia gobernante: dos sobrinos de la primera dama Cilia Flores esperan la sentencia de un tribunal de Nueva York por cargos de contrabando de cocaína hacia los Estados Unidos.

https://www.cronista.com/financialtimes/Venezuela-la-corrupcion-que-Maduro-oculta-20170717-0003.html

委内瑞拉将损失69亿美元石油收入

导读:道琼斯7月13日消息,投资银行Caracas Capital的Russ Dallen表示,委内瑞拉不断下滑的石油产量每年为该国带来近70亿美元的损失,而产量下滑的主要原因并非是认真执行欧佩克的限产

道琼斯7月13日消息,投资银行Caracas Capital的Russ Dallen表示,委内瑞拉不断下滑的石油产量每年为该国带来近70亿美元的损失,而产量下滑的主要原因并非是认真执行欧佩克的限产协议,而是在运营方面遇到阻力。

Dallen说,委内瑞拉同意按照欧佩克的要求将原油产量降至197.2万桶/日,换句话说,这已是既成事实。Dallen指出,委内瑞拉的原油产量已较限额低了3.4万桶/日,而其他欧佩克成员国的产量却在上升。

他说,委内瑞拉目前的原油产量较两年前低了43.7万桶/日,按照该国2017年以来的平均油价,这意味着每月损失逾5亿美元,每年损失69亿美元。

https://www.lbjcf.com/licaixinwen/201707/348297.shtml

Barron’s: OPEC – June Oil Production Rose, Except In Venezuela

Venezuela’s direct communication with OPEC indicated a production decline of 33,000 barrels per day. Russ Dallen, an attorney, publisher and head of Caracas Capital Markets writes:

” … Venezuela’s rig count had fallen to 49 in July 2016. Venezuela did try and get more rigs drilling over the last year, hitting a high of 56 in April, but guess what: the rig count for Venezuela is for June 2017: back at 49.

Based on its own estimates that its production was collapsing — estimates similar to ours –Venezuela agreed with OPEC to cut production to 1.972 barrels per day (in other words giving what was already a fait accompli). Venezuela has fallen through that cut and is now 34,000 barrels per day below its quota — while as OPEC notes, everyone else’s production is going higher. Worse, if you look at the 2015 column on the chart above, Venezuela was producing 2.375 million barrels per day just a year and a half ago in 2015. That means Venezuela is producing 437,000 barrels per day less than it was 2 years ago, which at Venezuela’s average 2017 oil price of $43.60 (so far), means that Venezuela is losing over half a billion dollars every month; $6.9 billion a year…”

 

http://www.barrons.com/articles/opec-june-oil-production-rose-except-in-venezuela-1499875589

Barron’s: What’s Next In Venezuela: Lopez Freed, Sunday Vote, Pdvsa Financials?

Russ Dallen, a lawyer, publisher and investor in Venezuela bonds via Caracas Capital, writes that there are two big things on the Venezuela agenda, including the possibility of more information on the finances and debt at state-controlled oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa):

“… Two big things on the Venezuela agenda for today. The first is for leaks coming out of PDVSA investor calls organized by BancTrust which are supposed to be held today — and the release of PDVSA 2016 financials cannot be far behind. The second big news of the day will be whether Venezuela pays Gold Reserve the $29.5 million installment on the $1.036 billion settlement. Previous agreements to pay Gold Reserve its $800 million International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) judgment have gone unpaid, until this latest agreement saw Venezuela cough up $40 million on June 16. … Crystallex — which has a $1.4 billion ICSID judgment — is getting a great deal more aggressive in its attempts to collect. They have filed a preliminary injunction on $710 million Venezuela credit linked notes at Nomura …”

http://www.barrons.com/articles/whats-next-in-venezuela-lopez-freed-sunday-vote-pdvsa-financials-1499708358

Bloomberg: Venezuela Opposition Plans Plebiscite as Violence Mounts

“Venezuela is entering a new circle of hell,” Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital Markets, said in an emailed report on June 30. “As the hopelessness of this future becomes more obvious to the opposition and a majority of Venezuelans, violence, civil strife, assassinations, and probabilities of coup attempts will exponentially increase.”

***

The constituent assembly had a high probability of taking place and would most likely move to dissolve the opposition-controlled National Assembly once convened, Dallen said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-03/venezuela-opposition-said-to-plan-plebiscite-on-maduro-s-future

i24 News: Russell Dallen joins Michelle Makori to discuss the Venezuela crisis

Russell Dallen joins Michelle Makori to discuss the Venezuela crisis

Posted by i24NEWS English on Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Russell Dallen joins Michelle Makori to discuss the Venezuela crisis.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/tv/replay/clearcut/x5s40wi

CSIS: Potential Scenarios for Venezuela’s Future

In order to apply additional analytic rigor to the development of plausible scenarios for Venezuela, CSIS convened a small group of experts with diverse backgrounds in the U.S. government and private sector, including Mark Schneider, senior adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Richard Miles, deputy director, CSIS Americas Program and director, CSIS U.S.-Mexico Futures Initiative; John Schaus, fellow, CSIS International Security Program; and Russ Dallen, managing partner, Caracas Capital Markets, to apply the Alternate Futures Structured Analytic Technique. Alternative Futures is a systematic method for identifying alternative trajectories by developing plausible and mind-stretching “stories” based on critical uncertainties. This scenarios method was inspired by Peter Schwartz, author of The Art of the Long View and Inevitable Surprises. The scenarios we developed in this exercise will help inform the “Day After” matrix that our Venezuela project is drafting to assist the United States and international community with recovery efforts in Venezuela.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/potential-scenarios-venezuelas-future

CSIS: Potenciales Escenarios para el Futuro de Venezuela

A fin de aplicar más rigor analítico adicional al desarrollo de posibles escenarios en Venezuela, CSIS reunió a un grupo de expertos con diversa experiencia en el gobierno de los EE.UU. y en el sector privado incluyendo a Mark Schneider, consejero mayor del CSIS Americas Program; Richard Miles, director adjunto del CSIS Americas Program y CSIS U.S.-México Futures Initiative; John Schaus, miembro del CSIS International Security Program; y Russ Dallen, socio director de Caracas Capital Markets, para aplicar la Técnica Analítica Estructurada de Futuros Alternos. La técnica de Futuros Alternos es una metodología sistemática para identificar trayectorias alternativas desarrollando “relatos” verosímiles y que hacen pensar, basándose en incertidumbres críticas. Este método de escenarios fue inspirado por Peter Schwartz, autor deThe Art of the Long View y de Inevitable Surprises. Los escenarios que desarrollamos en este ejercicio ayudarán a alimentar la matriz de “El Día Después” que nuestro proyecto de Venezuela está redactando para ayudar a los Estados Unidos y a la comunidad internacional con los esfuerzos de recuperación en Venezuela.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/potenciales-escenarios-para-el-futuro-de-venezuela

Financial Times: Venezuela woes on paying Russia debt raise prospect of default

GSAM has faced a storm of criticism for buying the PDVSA bonds, which opposition leaders say will not be honoured if the government falls. So far, says Russ Dallen of investment bank Caracas Capital, there have been no takers for the sovereign bonds.

“The PDVSA bond is toxic but not as toxic as the sovereign,” he says. “That one is incredibly radioactive. There have been no takers as far as I know, even at 20 cents.”

***

Mr Dallen at Caracas Capital — who is also publisher of the Latin American Herald Tribune, which first reported that Venezuela’s failure to pay its Russian debts had left a $1bn hole in Russia’s 2017 budget — points out that while Venezuela’s original default on its Russian debt happened some time ago, Russia’s public auditors say Venezuela has continued to miss payments this year, including one in March.

https://www.ft.com/content/c963883e-4c54-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

VENEZUELA: Den rumbo di Grecia buscando placa

“Esaki ta prijs di likidacion,” Russ Dallen ta splica, cu ta socio di e firma di intermediacion financiero Caracas Capital Markets. “Esaki ta e tipo di operacion cu un persona ta realisa ora e sa cu finalmente e no ta bay paga su debenan, manera ora bo ta na punto di declara bancarota, pero un poco prome cu esey bo ta sali pa cumpra tur sorto di cos, cargando tur bo tarhetanan di credito te maximo.”

E bononan al portador, cu en esencia ta permiti un persona transporta $5,000 miyon anonimamente den un maletin, ta un instrumento actualmente mira masha poco biaha den mercadonan financiero, despues cu a descontinua nan na Merca y otros paisnan pasobra el a converti su mes den e instrumento perfecto pa  labamento di placa y evasion fiscal.

E mmiho referencia conoci di e instrumentonan aki kizas tae bononan al portador Nakatomi, menciona den e pelicula “Hard to Kill’ cu Bruce Willis, unda e bandido, Hans Gruber, a spera di por scapa comodamente cu $640 miyon den un maleta.

“No por transporta $5,000 miyon den un maletin na biyete di $100,” Dallen a comenta. “Esaki ta e instrumento perfecto pa terorista di ficcion y, aparentemente tambe, pa e regimen Venezolano.”

E informacion disponible den mercado encuanto e emision priva di e bononan al portador pa e nacion ta scars, pero un di e datonan cu a duna di conoce a yama atencion di Dallen.

“Esaki ta e prome bono cu ta bisa cu Venezuela no mester ta un pais miembro di  Fondo Monetario Internacional, y cu esey, riba su mes, no ta un evento di default,”  e experto financiero acomenta, citando e informacion cu a aparece den e sistema di Bloomberg.

https://www.bondia24.com/venezuela-den-rumbo-di-grecia-buscando-placa/

Washington Post: Stuck in a death spiral, Venezuela is borrowing money at any cost

“Venezuela is borrowing at loan shark rates, as if they were going out of business and had no intention of paying these bonds back,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner at the brokerage Caracas Capital, which tracks Venezuela’s bond market.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/06/08/stuck-in-a-death-spiral-venezuela-is-borrowing-money-at-any-cost/?utm_term=.cbef9aab8c26

El Nuevo Herald: Maduro emite $8,000 millones en deuda a precios de liquidación en desesperada búsqueda de financiamiento

“Esos son precios de liquidación”, explicó Russ Dallen, socio de la firma de corretaje Caracas Capital Markets. “Es del tipo de operaciones que una persona realiza cuando sabe que al final no va a pagar las deudas, como cuando estás por declarar la bancarrota pero poco antes sales a comprar de todo, cargando hasta el máximo las tarjetas de crédito”.

Los bonos al portador, que en esencia permitirían a una persona transportar $5,000 millones anónimamente dentro de un maletín, son un instrumento actualmente muy pocas veces visto en los mercados financieros, tras haber sido descontinuados en Estados Unidos y otros países por convertirse en el instrumento perfecto para el lavado de dinero y la evasión fiscal.

La referencia mejor conocida sobre estos instrumentos quizás sea los bonos al portador Nakatomi, mencionados en la película Duro de Matar con Bruce Willis, donde el villano, Hans Gruber, esperaba escapar cómodamente con $640 millones dentro de una valija.

“No se pueden portar $5,000 millones dentro de un maletín en billetes de $100”, comentó Dallen. “Estos son instrumentos perfectos para terroristas ficcionales y, aparentemente también, para el régimen venezolano”.

http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/venezuela-es/article154956354.html

 

 

 

Bενεζουέλα – Όσο, όσο ξεπουλάει ομόλογα 5 δισ. δολ.

«Είναι λες και έχουν “ξεπούλημα λόγω κλεισίματος”», σχολίασε ο Russ Dallen, εταίρος στην Caracas Capital Markets, «και αυτό είναι που θα έπρεπε να ανησυχεί τους αγοραστές. Είτε είναι πραγματικά απελπισμένοι, είτε απλά παραγεμίζουν την πιστωτική τους ικανότητα, χωρίς να σχεδιάζουν να αποπληρώσουν».

http://www.businessenergy.gr/articlenews/16842/b%CE%B5%CE%BD%CE%B5%CE%B6%CE%BF%CF%85%CE%AD%CE%BB%CE%B1-%CE%8C%CF%83%CE%BF-%CF%8C%CF%83%CE%BF-%CE%BE%CE%B5%CF%80%CE%BF%CF%85%CE%BB%CE%AC%CE%B5%CE%B9-%CE%BF%CE%BC%CF%8C%CE%BB%CE%BF%CE%B3%CE%B1-5-%CE%B4%CE%B9%CF%83-%CE%B4%CE%BF%CE%BB