At the moment, Maduro has favoured repaying Russia and China, which is unsurprising given that the two countries are helping to keep the lights on in his administration. According to Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital Markets, Russia’s state-owned oil producer Rosneft received an additional $800m from Venezuela in the fourth quarter, bringing total debt repayments to the company by the country to $2.3bn in 2018. Excluding interest, Venezuela still owes Rosneft another $2.3bn, per Dallen:
Russia and China will have a seat at the table for whatever restructuring talks eventually take place, says Dallen, and the current priority bestowed to them may continue long after Maduro steps down. Dallen reckons that Guaidó could dangle preferential treatment when it comes to repayment to encourage the two countries to pull their support from Maduro.