Futuro de detentores de bonds da Venezuela é incerto

Venz Bolivars“Embora o mercado ache que o governo separou o dinheiro para pagar os bonds que vencem no dia 26 de fevereiro, o que acontecerá depois disso não é de modo algum garantido e é isso o que se vê refletido no preço”, disse Russ Dallen, trader-chefe da Caracas Capital Markets em Miami.

http://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/bloomberg/2016/02/04/futuro-de-detentores-de-bonds-da-venezuela-e-incerto.htm

Barron’s: Venezuela Debt Sched – Will Maduro Introduce Reforms Friday?

Venz Debt PaymentsThe Venezuela debt payment schedule, much of it for the state-controlled oil company Petroleos de Venezuela or PDVSA,  includes a large chunk due in February of roughly $2.3 billion, according to Russ Dallen, editor of the Latin American Herald Tribune and an investment banker. Last fall, Dallen published these Venezuela payment estimates for 2016: $229 million in March, $782 million in April, $983 million in May, $150 million in June and July, $806 million in August, $229 million in September, and $1.8 billion in October.

http://www.barrons.com

El Universal: Default en 2016 difícil de evitar

Venz Debt PaymentsPara Russell Dallen, socio gerente de Latinvest conocedor y trader experto en el mercado de deuda venezolana, la medida es inevitable. “Ya la interrogante es, ‘¿en qué momento Venezuela va a declarar una moratoria este año?’, ya no es si irá a hacerlo”, dijo Dallen. Según los cálculos de Dallen, un precio promedio de $25 por barril multiplicado por un volumen de exportación de dos millones de barriles diarios -volumen que probablemente es muy superior al que realmente exporta Venezuela- le daría un ingreso bruto de $ 18.000 millones anuales. A ese total, sin embargo, habría que restarle un costo de producción estimado por el propio ministro de Energía y Petróleo, Eulogio Del Pino, de $13 por barril, equivalentes a $9.490 millones para todo el año, dejando un saldo de solo $8.510 millones para cancelar los más de $10.000 millones requeridos para el servicio de la deuda en el 2016. Dallen estima que para evitar un default, Venezuela necesita un precio de crudo promedio de al menos $45 por barril.

http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/opinion/default-2016-dificil-evitar_4129

El Nuevo Herald: Venezuela, en el umbral de la hambruna y del incumplimiento de la deuda

Venz Food LinesPara Russell Dallen, socio gerente de Latinvest Group Holdings, la medida es inevitable.

“Ya la interrogante es, ‘¿en qué momento Venezuela va a declarar una moratoria este año?’, ya no es si irá a hacerlo”, dijo Dallen.

Según los cálculos de Dallen, un precio promedio de $25 por barril multiplicado por un volumen de exportación de dos millones de barriles diarios —volumen que probablemente es muy superior al que realmente exporta Venezuela— le daría un ingreso bruto de $18,000 millones anuales.

A ese total, sin embargo, habría que restarle un costo de producción estimado por el propio ministro de Energía y Petróleo, Eulogio Del Pino, de $13 por barril, equivalentes a $9,490 millones para todo el año, dejando un saldo de solo $8,510 millones para cancelar los más de $10,000 millones requeridos año para el servicio de la deuda en el 2016.

A ese nivel de precio no habría un solo centavo para financiar las importaciones del país, las cuales sumaron más de $35,000 millones en el 2014, cuando ya los supermercados comenzaban a sufrir considerables problemas de desabastecimiento.

Las ventas de crudo generan cerca del 95 por ciento de los dólares que ingresan a Venezuela, y son esenciales para mantener surtidos a los supermercados, tras el colapso en la producción nacional provocado por una serie de políticas antiempresariales, adoptadas por el chavismo durante los últimos 10 años.

Dallen dijo que para evitar un default, Venezuela necesita un precio de crudo promedio de al menos $45 por barril.

Miami Herald/WLRN/National Public Radio: Venezuela’s Nosedive Will Continue In 2016 – Even If Maduro Doesn’t

Miami Herald/WLRN/National Public Radio: Venezuela’s Nosedive Will Continue In 2016 – Even If Maduro Doesn’t

Even those who welcomed the revolution’s anti-poverty project early on find themselves agreeing today with conservative analysts like Russ Dallen, managing partner of the banking firm LatInvest in Miami:

“It’s further proof that Castro-communism can bring even a rich economy to the brink of bankruptcy,” Dallen told me. “The only thing that made it look like it wasn’t a disaster was the incredible rise in oil prices during Chávez’s presidency.”

Dallen says the rot started as far back as 2002, when Chávez began wholesale firings of employees at PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-run oil monopoly.

“He replaced them with political hacks, people who were loyal to Chávez and the revolution but had no idea how to pump oil out of the ground,” says Dallen. “Policies like that destroyed the productive capability of the country in every other sphere, whether it be coffee or chocolate or toilet paper.”

Venezuela’s latest humiliating shortage, he adds, involves “people in Caracas lined up for blocks last weekend to get underarm deodorant – but just the filler. There’s no dollars to import deodorant, and even for domestic producers who can still make it there’s no dollars to get the plastic to make the deodorant containers. So people have to bring in their old deodorant containers to be refilled. Depressing.”

But even so, as oil prices keep tanking, can the new National Assembly pass anything this year to ameliorate the catastrophe?Venz Food Riots

“No,” is Dallen’s short answer, especially as Maduro – who just appointed a sociologist with no economic training as his economic vice president – fights for “emergency” economic decree powers.

“The Assemby is blocked because the Supreme Court is controlled by government loyalists,” Dallen notes. “So even if it had enough votes to override Maduro’s vetoes, the Supreme Court would rule anything it legislates to be unconstitutional.”

As a result, the Assembly’s most important work this year may not be economic but political: Calling a constitutional recall referendum, as soon as April, that could boot Maduro from office three years before his term ends.

His exit would set up a special election. But the winner, be it a government or opposition candidate, will feel as though he or she just took the helm of the Titanic. That’s because as Venezuela keeps hemorrhaging foreign reserves, says Dallen, the country will likely default on its foreign debt in 2016 – and steepen the country’s nosedive.

“Venezuela this year owes $10.5 billion just to service maturing debt obligations,” Dallen points out. “They simply don’t have enough money to pay for everything else.

“So to get cancer in Venezuela right now is almost a death sentence. There’s no medicine.”

http://wlrn.org/post/venezuelas-nosedive-will-continue-2016-even-if-maduro-doesnt

Financial Times: Fears of Venezuela debt default rise as bond prices plunge

Venz Maduro Finger“Venezuela is running out of runway and falling oil prices are quickly shortening the tarmac,” says Russ Dallen, who heads investment bank, Latinvest.

“If their oil basket averaged $25 for the rest of the year, Venezuela would have total revenue of less than $20 billion and their foreign debt takes up over half of that this year at $10.5 billion,” says Mr Dallen.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d65d817c-c0ee-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz3y1ZgqAY5

For Venezuela, oil is a resource curse

For Venezuela, oil is a resource curse

 

Russ Dallen, with the investment bank Latinvest, said, “You have to stand in line at the government stores for six to eight hours to get in to see what they have available.”
   
Dallen said there are black markets, but only if you have tens of thousands of bolivars, or Bs, in your wallet.

“A shirt, for example, that was 5,000 Bs before the December election is now 45,000 Bs,” he said. “So in just the space of one month, some items have gone up nine times what they were.”
 
So one of the first things on the agenda of the opposition party is to domestically produce food and basic goods.

Right now, just about the only thing Venezuela produces is oil and gas. Other sectors have been crowded out.

“One Venezuelan minister called oil the devil’s excrement, becauVENEZUELA-PARLIAMENT-SUPREME-COURTse it has been a curse to so many countries and caused so much trouble,” Dallen said.

Here’s how it played out under Chavez, and now his successor Nicolas Maduro.

Venezuela spends its petrodollars subsidizing oil to sell it cheap to allies like Cuba and sells ultra-discounted appliances and gasoline to the people, which also drains public money.
 
“Gasoline is less than a penny a gallon in Venezuela,” Dallen said. “So when I fill up, it costs me less than 25 cents. And the majority of that 25 cents actually goes to pay the tip of the guy that fills up the car.”

http://www.marketplace.org/2016/01/11/world/venezuela-oil-resource-curse