“Las altas esferas militares están implicadas hacen plata con diversos programas”, afirma Russ Dallen, director gerente de Caracas Capital, un banco de inversión. Las acusaciones también salpican a la familia gobernante: dos sobrinos de la primera dama Cilia Flores esperan la sentencia de un tribunal de Nueva York por cargos de contrabando de cocaína hacia los Estados Unidos.
https://www.cronista.com/financialtimes/Venezuela-la-corrupcion-que-Maduro-oculta-20170717-0003.html
GSAM has faced a storm of criticism for buying the PDVSA bonds, which opposition leaders say will not be honoured if the government falls. So far, says Russ Dallen of investment bank Caracas Capital, there have been no takers for the sovereign bonds.
“The PDVSA bond is toxic but not as toxic as the sovereign,” he says. “That one is incredibly radioactive. There have been no takers as far as I know, even at 20 cents.”
***
Mr Dallen at Caracas Capital — who is also publisher of the Latin American Herald Tribune, which first reported that Venezuela’s failure to pay its Russian debts had left a $1bn hole in Russia’s 2017 budget — points out that while Venezuela’s original default on its Russian debt happened some time ago, Russia’s public auditors say Venezuela has continued to miss payments this year, including one in March.
https://www.ft.com/content/c963883e-4c54-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
The DC request cites the Latin American Herald Tribune’s report on the default, which the FT has not been able to independently verify. Bloomberg has also confirmed the report, citing Russian Audit Chamber.
https://www.ft.com/content/b995e056-fa5c-3b2d-a4f1-63a9e4ce0404?mhq5j=e3
“Esto significa es que el gobierno ya no tiene de dónde más sacar”, dijo Russ Dallen del banco de inversiones Caracas Capital. Añadió que, combinados, Venezuela y PDVSA desembolsaron unos u$s 9500 millones en pagos de bonos en 2016, y tendrían que pagar una cantidad similar este año.
“What this says is that you have a government reaching the bottom of the barrel,” said Russ Dallen at investment bank Caracas Capital. He added that, combined, Venezuela and PDVSA disbursed some $9.5bn in bond payments in 2016, and would have to pay a similar amount this year.
https://www.ft.com/content/d9d2edec-d146-11e6-b06b-680c49b4b4c0
How much is Citgo Holding worth?
If only we knew. Citgo is not a publicly traded company and its value is a matter of conjecture. In its bond swap offer, PDVSA claimed a valuation of $12.5bn.
PDVSA previously said Citgo’s three refineries alone were worth $7bn. Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital says that, based on the earlier sale of another Citgo refinery, they would come out closer to $1.3bn. Mr Dallen puts the value of Citgo Holding, which includes pipelines and other assets, at between $4bn and $5bn.
But PDVSA says Citgo Holding has debts of $4.2bn. In addition, Citgo’s assets are already at risk of seizure from creditors of PDVSA and the government, as the ultimate owner of both companies.
Crystallex, another Canadian gold miner, sued the government for $2.8bn over expropriation of its assets and was awarded $1.4bn by ICSID, the World Bank’s dispute settlement system, in March this year. Rusoro, a Canadian-Russian gold miner, won $1.2bn from ICSID in August.
ExxonMobil, the oil major, was awarded $1.6bn, also for nationalisation, in 2014. ConocoPhillips, the oil exploration company, is seeking as much as $5bn in a similar case in coming months.
There are other awards against Venezuela that would put Citgo’s assets at risk of seizure by its creditors. Just those listed above add up to $4.2bn, without ConocoPhillips. Add in $4.2bn of debt, and there is little left over even if PDVSA’s unattributed valuation can be believed.
What’s more, some of Citgo’s debts would become payable within days of a default on the new 2020 bonds, as they are accelerated by a change of control (which would happen if the collateral were called on). Mr Dallen says some $2bn would be affected immediately.
https://www.ft.com/content/e5298570-9a96-11e6-8f9b-70e3cabccfae
¿Cuánto vale Citgo Holding?
Citgo no es una compañía cotizante y su valor es relativo. En su oferta de canje de bonos, PDVSA asegura que su valuación es de u$s 12.500 millones.
PDVSA antes dijo que las tres refinerías de Citgo valían u$s 7000 millones. Russ Dallen de Caracas Capital sostiene que, en base a la venta anterior de otra refinería de Citgo, podrían salir a la venta por cerca de u$s 1300 millones. Dallen estima que el valor de Citgo Holding, que incluye oleoductos y otros activos, asciende a entre u$s 4000 y u$s 5000 millones.
Pero PDVSA afirmó que Citgo tiene deudas por u$s 4.200 millones. Además, los activos de la empresa ya corren riesgo de ser embargados por los acreedores de PDVSA y del gobierno, en definitiva el dueño de ambas compañías.
¿Por cuánto tiempo podrá Venezuela pilotear la situación?
Los analistas e inversores hace un tiempo que se vienen preparando para un default, pero el “Día D” todavía no llega. El Banco Central asegura que las reservas extranjeras totales ascienden a u$s 11.800 millones, menos de los u$s 35.000 de principios de 2015.
Morden de Nomura calculó el futuro ingreso neto fondos en dos escenarios: precios del petróleo al nivel actual para un crudo venezolano en cerca de u$s 38 el barril, y precios más altos en el futuro. Después del servicio de la deuda, la fuga de capitales y las importaciones relacionadas con el petróleo, ella estima que los ingresos netos provenientes de exportaciones de petróleo serán cercanos a u$s 8800 millones este año, subiendo a u$s 12.800 millones en 2017 si repuntan los precios.
Citgo no es una compañía cotizante y su valor es pura conjetura. En su oferta de canje de bonos, PDVSA asegura que su valuación es de u$s 12.500 millones.
PDVSA antes dijo que las tres refinerías de Citgo valían u$s 7000 millones.
Russ Dallen de Caracas Capital sostiene que, en base a la venta anterior de otra refinería de Citgo, podrían salir a la venta por cerca de u$s 1300 millones. Dallen estima que el valor de Citgo Holding, que incluye oleoductos y otros activos, asciende a entre u$s 4000 y u$s 5000 millones.
Pero PDVSA afirmó que Citgo tiene deudas por u$s 4.200 millones. Además, los activos de la empresa ya corren riesgo de ser embargados por los acreedores de PDVSA y del gobierno, en definitiva el dueño de ambas compañías.
Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital agreed the swap would provide short-term relief. “The bottom line is that there’s $1bn they don’t have to come up with on November 2 [when the next payment on the tendered bonds is due],” he said.
https://www.ft.com/content/719b23be-9a07-11e6-8f9b-70e3cabccfae
“This could be a scare tactic, or it could be a real strategy to try to save face and cover up their own incompetence [if they default],” said Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital.
https://www.ft.com/content/a38f77c8-96e5-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b
The two entities owe $4.8bn to creditors through the end of the year, which is likely to drain available cash levels, according to Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital.
https://www.ft.com/content/e9e18bac-8caa-11e6-8aa5-f79f5696c731
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